The Ceasefire That Lasted Twenty Days | Mid July 2026 Global Conflict Watch

Three key global signals (July 1-15, 2026)

•  The US–Iran ceasefire collapsed: after strikes on tankers, Iran’s IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed on July 12th and three nights of US strikes hit more than 300 Iranian targets, sending Brent crude up 9.6 per cent to $83.30, its largest one-day gain in over six years.
• The UN Human Rights Council opened an urgent inquiry into El Obeid in Sudan, where the UN human rights office documented 15 drone strikes killing at least 45 civilians in three weeks. More than 560,000 people are facing a potential ground assault.
• Russia's July 1-2nd strike on Kyiv killed 31 people. It was the deadliest attack on the capital this year, with none of 23 ballistic missiles intercepted amid a Patriot interceptor shortage.

The thread: Each party in July's armed conflict is using chokepoints in their strategy - squeezing an artery civilians and global markets depend on. Whether it is a strait that carries 20% of the world’s oil, a trade-corridor city in Africa, or a capital city's air defence. Each strategy seems geared to extract terms at the negotiating table, with the cost priced far beyond each theatre.

Tier 1: Active Hot Spots

 US/Iran

• Projectiles struck the Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayat and Saudi supertanker Wedyan on July 7th, after which the US reimposed the oil sanctions lifted under the June memorandum and struck more than 300 targets over three nights (CNN, Washington Post).
• Iranian cruise missiles hit two UAE-owned tankers in Omani waters on July 13th, killing one Indian crew member and injuring eight, according to the UAE Defence Ministry, after the IRGC declared the Strait closed on 12 July 12th (UAE Defence Ministry).

Sudan

• The UN Human Rights Council established an urgent inquiry into El Obeid after OHCHR documented summary executions, abductions, torture and sexual violence along displacement routes out of Kordofan (OHCHR via UN News).
• The European Parliament voted 476 to 28 on July 9th to call for the RSF's designation as a terrorist organisation and sanctions on a UAE-based company over the siege (Sudan Tribune).

Ukraine/ Russia

• Russian strikes on Kyiv killed 31 people on July 1-2nd and a further 20 on July 6th on the eve of the NATO summit, in a barrage Ukraine's military estimated at 68 missiles and 351 drones (Ukrainian State Emergency Service via Radio Svoboda).
• Ukrainian officials said that the ballistic missiles were able to penetrate their country's air defences because Kyiv lacks critical interceptors, specifically the much-sought-after Patriot PAC-3 made by the US.
• Ukraine's General Staff reported, drones struck the Omsk refinery in Russia 2,700km away. This was its longest-range strike of the war, and damaged 15 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov (Ukrainian General Staff via Al Jazeera, 2026).

Gaza/Israel

• Hamas announced on July 6th it would dissolve its Gaza civil administration and called for the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza to assume authority, as the plan's second phase remains stalled (UN Security Council Report, 2026).
• Israeli forces now control close to 70% of Gaza according to mapping analysis of Israeli statements and aid-access data, with the UN humanitarian office recording around 200 Palestinians killed near shifting control lines since October (OCHA via NPR).

Lebanon / Israel

The 3 June 3rd Washington ceasefire framework has held formally through mid-July; ACLED recorded a roughly 35 per cent fall in remote violence in Lebanon in June (ACLED)

Myanmar

• A junta offensive in northern Sagaing forced People's Defence Force evacuations in areas of Kathah, Indaw and Mawlu in the first week of July, and junta airstrikes injured Rohingya civilians near the Bangladesh border on July 6th (Myanmar Now).
• ASEAN foreign ministers agreed to a virtual meeting with the junta's foreign minister, the bloc's first such re-engagement since Myanmar's exclusion from top ASEAN meetings in 2021 (Reuters via CFR Global Conflict Tracker).

Mali

JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front staged coordinated attacks on army positions across Mali in Anefis, Aguelhoc, Gao, Sévaré, Kenioroba with Reuters reporting the army claimed 20 killed in Sévaré and six in Gao, and JNIM claiming it seized positions (Reuters)

DRC / M23

• The sixth Joint Oversight Committee under the Washington Accords convened and the US sanctioned entities accused of smuggling minerals from M23-held areas to Rwanda, while clashes continued in the South Kivu highlands including a repelled pro-government offensive on Minembwe (US State Department).

Tier 2: Escalating Conflicts

Somalia

• The Somali National Army conducted a series of airstrikes during the fortnight, alongside international partners. The airstrikes targeted locations occupied by Al-Shabaab.The various strikes killed Al-Shabaab fighters and destroyed vehicles, weapons, military supplies and bases of the group.

Tier 3: Slow Burns & Emerging Signals

Nuclear safety, two theatres

• IAEA teams heard drones and gunfire at three Ukrainian plants in early July and Zaporizhzhia lost all off-site power for the 21st time on July 3rd.
• US strikes hit Iran's Bushehr province on July 8th.
• IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi named Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia, Iran's Bushehr, UAE's Barakah and Russia's Kursk as equally off-limits and confirmed that no direct attack on Bushehr was observed by the IAEA. (IAEA Update 357)

Haiti

• The UN’s Gang Suppression Force remains in early deployment at roughly 1,000 personnel; the Secretary-General's report on the UN office in Haiti was due July 14th ahead of the Council's 90-day briefing (Security Council Report, 2026).

Ecuador 

• Gang violence against civilians hit a monthly high, per ACLED's July regional overview (ACLED, 2026).

Colombia

• Deadly clashes preceded the electoral period as President Petro presses for final agreements with armed groups before his term ends in August (ACLED, 2026).

Yemen / Red Sea

• Yemen's government said it struck the Sanaa airport runway on July 13th and Houthi forces fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia, as the UN Council's Resolution 2812 reporting mandate reached its July 15th renewal date (UN Security Council Report, 2026).

Women, peace and security

Global: The Security Council held its annual open debate on conflict-related sexual violence on July 8th under the DRC presidency, on the Secretary-General's latest report (Security Council Report, 2026).

Sudan: The report documents 2025 cases affecting 275 women and 218 girls, with the RSF the majority perpetrator and Zaghawa and Fur women targeted on ethnic grounds; OHCHR separately documented sexual violence on El Obeid escape routes (UN Secretary-General CRSV report via Security Council Report, 2026; OHCHR, 2026).

Gaza: The report documents sexual violence against Palestinians in Israeli detention and at checkpoints, and records hostage allegations against Hamas the UN could not verify owing to denied access (UN Secretary-General CRSV report via Security Council Report, 2026).

Myanmar. The report describes continuing widespread and systematic sexual violence as a tactic of war by the military, with the Arakan Army and anti-junta groups also implicated (UN Secretary-General CRSV report via Security Council Report, 2026).

Haiti. Gangs subjected at least 291 women and girls to sexual violence in the latest reporting period (UN Secretary-General BINUH report via Security Council Report, 2026).

Iran/Gulf, Ukraine, Lebanon, DRC. No verified in-window WPS development. We are recording this as sourcing gaps, not absences of activity.