US–Iran Sign Hormuz Peace Deal as Sudan Siege Deepens | July Global Conflict Watch

Three key global signals (June 9-30, 2026)

• The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on 17 June in an attempt to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, restoring the route that carried roughly a fifth of the world's oil and starting a 60-day clock on a final nuclear deal.
• In Sudan the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) tightened a drone-enabled siege of El Obeid, trapping around half a million people on the country's central trade artery and drawing atrocity warnings from the United Nations and the United States.
• Ukraine authorised a 40-day long-range strike campaign on 25 June against a Russian economy under pressure, with oil and gas revenues falling 30% year on year.

The thread: energy infrastructure is now the battlefield of choice; ending a war, strangling one and financing one all ran through oil routes, fuel depots and export revenues this cycle.

Tier 1: Active Hot Spots

Gaza

• Israeli military activity fell around 20% in June but concentrated on enforcing the Yellow Line buffer, while renewed negotiations in Egypt left disarmament, withdrawal and post-war governance unresolved (ACLED, 2026).
•  Gaza's health ministry, a conflict-party body, said on 17 June that 1,005 Palestinians had been killed since the October ceasefire; a United Nations Commission of Inquiry found in June that children were deliberately targeted, accounting for roughly 30% of reported fatalities (Gaza Health Ministry via AP, 2026; UN Commission of Inquiry, 2026).

Sudan

• RSF drone strikes on fuel depots and water stations in El Obeid built siege conditions around North Kordofan's capital ahead of an assessed ground offensive, with roads out increasingly impassable (International Rescue Committee).
• The United States had warned a few days earlier of likely atrocities as RSF forces massed outside the city, echoing warnings from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and the Secretary-General eight months after the El Fasher massacres (US State Department and OHCHR positions via Council on Foreign Relations).

Ukraine / Russia

• President Zelensky authorised a 40-day intermediate and long-range strike campaign; strikes on Crimean logistics, ships and radar prompted occupation authorities to declare a state of emergency amid fuel and water shortages (Institute for the Study of War).
• Russian oil and gas revenues fell 30% from January to May against 2025, and Ukrainian forces advanced in western Zaporizhzhia while Russian operations toward Hulyaipole failed to advance (ISW).

Haiti

• UN Secretary-General Guterres visited Port-au-Prince as new UN figures showed 2,300 people killed and 1.5 million displaced across Haiti this year, with more than 300,000 displaced in the capital, a record (UN via AP).
• Defence ministry cabinet director James Boyard who and also serves as inspector general of Haiti's police was abducted in one of the capital's few relatively safe districts in the days before the visit, as the Viv Ansanm coalition's estimated control reached 70% of Port-au-Prince (AP).

DRC

• The sixth Joint Oversight Committee met in London, expressing serious concern at escalating fighting, drone strikes affecting civilians and the deepening humanitarian situation in eastern DRC, including an Ebola outbreak (joint statement of the DRC, Rwanda, US, Qatar, Togo and the African Union Commission).
• MONUSCO chief James Swan told the Security Council heavy fighting continued between AFC/M23, supported by Rwandan forces, and the Congolese army in North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri, with nearly 27 million people food insecure (UN).

Myanmar

• Independent analysis assessed the war has entered a new stalemate phase, with the military regaining momentum after resistance groups rejected April peace talks, while resistance forces still control between one third and one half of the country (Thin levels of Sourcing – please use this information with caution).

Tier 2: Escalating Conflicts

Iran / US

• The Iran/US war has been de-escalated to Tier 2 with President Trump and President Pezeshkian signing the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding on 17 June. They declared a permanent end to the war on all fronts including Lebanon, reopening the Strait of Hormuz free of charge for 60 days and opening a 60-day window for a final nuclear agreement backed by a proposed 300 billion dollar reconstruction plan (official MOU text released by the US, 17 June 2026).
• Implementation disputes are playing out through military pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, and the IAEA has yet to secure access to verify the committed down-blending of Iran's highly enriched uranium (ACLED, 2026; IAEA Director General remarks).

Lebanon / Israel

• Remote violence fell in Lebanon after the June ceasefire implementation agreement, but a Hezbollah drone attack at Kfar Tebnit on 19 June killed four Israeli soldiers, including a battalion commander, the deadliest attack on Israeli forces since the ceasefire (ACLED, 2026).
• A new round of Israel–Lebanon talks opened in Washington on 22 June covering withdrawal, border security and Hezbollah's future role, buoyed by the US-Iran memorandum (ACLED, 2026).

Women, peace and security

1. Gaza: UN Women's executive director told the Security Council on 17 June that women remain excluded from the negotiations shaping Gaza's future while paying the conflict's highest price (UN Women).
2. Sudan: across every diplomatic initiative on Sudan, not one Sudanese woman has taken part in actual negotiations, in a war whose atrocities against women and girls "shame humanity" (UN Women).
3. Ukraine: only men have featured in all rounds of peace talks; the Council's sole Ukraine decision since 2022 contains no WPS language (UN Women; NGO Working Group on WPS).
4. Haiti: Resolution 2814 stripped the UN mission's mandate of prior WPS provisions, including language on sexual and gender-based violence and women's participation (Security Council Report, June 2026).
5. DRC and Myanmar: both named among situations of heightened violence, displacement and marginalisation of women; no theatre-specific verified WPS development (Security Council Report, June 2026).
6. Iran / US and Lebanon: women were absent from the MOU process and the Lebanon track, both named by UN Women among processes excluding women (UN Women).