Alberta toys with leaving Canada. Ask Britain how that went.

I’m writing from Edmonton, Alberta, back in the city where I spent the first 27 years of my life. Now, the province is debating a question that would once have seemed unthinkable to many Canadians. Should Alberta begin the process of leaving the country?

On 19 October 2026, Albertans will vote on whether the provincial government should begin the legal process required to hold a future binding referendum on separation. It is not a direct vote for independence, but it could bring Alberta closer to a constitutional confrontation that would reshape Canada. 

At the centre of the debate is Premier Danielle Smith, whose critics call her policies draconian, and who has been who has been channelling longstanding frustration with Ottawa, into demands for greater provincial autonomy.

The problem with Danielle Smith

Smith became premier in October 2022 after winning the leadership of Alberta’s right-wing United Conservative Party. A former journalist and radio host, she’s built her political identity around individual freedom and the belief that Ottawa has too much influence over provincial affairs.

Her support is strongest among conservative voters – particularly outside Edmonton and Calgary – where the UCP has a stronger base and where many feel Alberta’s oil and gas wealth is being held back by federal environmental policies and decisions made by politicians who don’t understand the province’s economy. Smith has made those grievances central to her politics. 

But this is where everything gets blurry.

Despite calling for a referendum that could begin the process towards separation – and spending upwards of C$135 million towards logistics and marketing for it – Smith insists she wants Alberta to remain in Canada.

“Now, I want to be clear. I support Alberta remaining in Canada. That is how I would vote on separation in a provincial referendum. It is also the position of my government and my caucus,” she said in her televised address on 21 May 2026. 

If that was supposed to clear things up, it didn’t. Smith says she wants Alberta to stay in Canada while helping put the question of leaving on the political agenda. It’s an interesting way to reassure people that the country isn’t about to lose a province.

What do separatists actually want?

Alberta’s separatist movement draws on economic resentment, conservative politics and distrust of federal institutions. But not everyone wants the same thing.

The Alberta Prosperity Project, the movement’s most extreme organisation, wants Alberta to become a sovereign country with its own constitution and greater control over taxation, natural resources, immigration, policing and pensions. It also advocates negotiating trade deals directly with the United States.

Others see the threat of independence as leverage to force the federal government to hand Alberta more power. And plenty of Albertans who are frustrated with Ottawa have no desire to leave Canada, the goal is to stop having to negotiate with Ottawa at all.

An Ipsos poll in June found that 72% of Albertans favoured remaining in Canada, while 19% supported beginning the process towards a future separation vote. Support for starting that process was higher outside Calgary and Edmonton, but it was not a majority position anywhere surveyed. 

The American question

What makes Alberta’s debate even more consequential is Donald Trump and the United States. Alberta’s economy is deeply integrated with its southern neighbour, a major market for its energy exports. Trump has repeatedly spoken about Canada becoming the 51st US state, and his administration’s trade policies have put further pressure on relations between the two countries. Reports suggest that US officials have met representatives of the Alberta Prosperity Project raising questions about Washington’s potential role. 

Not all separatists want Alberta to join the US. Some envision an independent country. But Alberta is landlocked between British Columbia, Saskatchewan, the Northwest Territories and Montana. Having to negotiate access to markets, infrastructure and trade routes would give the US considerable influence.

Would Alberta actually gain sovereignty by leaving Canada, only to become more economically dependent on the United States?

What happens if the referendum passes?

The October vote will not make Alberta independent – at least not yet. Voters are being asked to choose between remaining a province of Canada and asking the government to commence the legal process required to hold a future binding referendum on separation.

A vote to begin the process would therefore be a step towards another vote, not a declaration of independence. Any eventual secession would involve complex constitutional negotiations and many questions about debt, citizenship, pensions, public services, trade and Indigenous treaty rights.

The Brexit lesson

I moved to London in September 2019, when Britain was in the final stages of leaving the European Union after years of arguments about sovereignty, immigration and whether the country would be better off going it alone.

Now, I can’t help but feel déjà vu. 

Alberta’s circumstances a different. It’s a province within a federation, not a sovereign country leaving a political and economic union. But the question feels familiar. Can leaving an established political arrangement solve the frustrations that made people want to leave in the first place?

On Canadian Thanksgiving, 12 October, Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a message from St Francis Xavier High School in Edmonton, where he grew up and attended school. “We have to be strong and we are stronger together,” he said.

It was a pointed contrast with the debate unfolding across Alberta. While Smith brings the possibility of leaving Canada into the mainstream dialogue, Carney makes the case for sticking together.

Having watched Britain grapple with the consequences of Brexit, I know that leaving is not the end of a political argument, but the beginning of another, often more complicated one. a landmark multi-method study co-authored by economists at the Bank of England and Stanford University's Nicholas Bloom revealed that Brexit caused a 6% to 8% reduction in UK economic growth. A YouGov poll marking the 10-year milestone also showed that 55% of Britons would vote to rejoin the EU. On that basis, can we call it a success?

Alberta’s referendum promises greater control. But leaving Canada could mean trading one set of political frustrations for another, while taking on the economic and political risks of going it alone.